INFLUENCE OF CONSTRUCTION COST INCREASE ON REAL ESTATE PRICE INCREASE – FOCUS ON ZAGREB IN 2022

During last decade there is a constant increase in number of new properties built in Zagreb. There is a large number of new residences, as well as business buildings constructed, with a direct impact on revenue increase of construction companies working in Zagreb area. Regardless of the fact that number of Zagreb population has not changed significantly in last decade, there is an increase of new buildings followed by significant price increase of real estate, especially during last five years. Lack of commercial, or business buildings in Zagreb, as well as workplace deficit in Slavonia have an impact on demand growth in Zagreb real estate sector. With additional flow of Croatian students to Zagreb, demand for quality accommodation has a direct impact on real estate selling price. Recently there was a significant price increase of material and labor, which had additional impact of real estate price increase. Goal of this paper is to analyze available public data that represents material price change, as well as to analyze financial reports of biggest construction companies from Zagreb area. Analyzed data should display impact of material and labor price increase on real estate price increase, and what could be anticipated in following years.

New Data of the 1755 Earthquake and Tsunami in Lisbon, Portugal

In spite of the significant number of studies focused on the 1755 earthquake and tsunami, there are still many unknowns regarding this event in Lisbon, Portugal. Thus, in this research the authors compiled historical documents, including some that had never been analyzed, complemented with a field survey and tsunami numerical modeling at the historical civil parish of Santo Estevão, Lisbon. It was possible to identify 13 buildings, including three religious buildings and five palaces. Furthermore, the new data showed that contradicting the general idea, the earthquake caused significant damage to the selected territory because the number of households decreased by 52%. The number of residents decreased to about 51%, and in 1756, 1041 residents were still living in 297 temporary shelters. There were more than 44 dead and 1122 residents were unaccounted for. The fire did not hit the area, and the tsunami numerical model results were validated by the historical accounts and cartography, which indicate that the coastal area of the studied area was not significantly inundated by the tsunami. The consultation of historical documents that had never been analyzed by contemporary researchers provides a breakthrough in the knowledge of the event since it allowed a very detailed analysis of the disaster impact.

What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand

We present a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) case study from the Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere / Franz Josef Glacier and Te Moeka o Tuawe / Fox Glacier valleys, on the west coast of the South Island, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The glacier valleys are important tourist destinations that are subject to landslide hazards. Both valleys contain actively retreating glaciers;experience high rainfall;and are proximal to the Alpine Fault, which is a major source of seismic hazard on the west coast. We considered the life safety risk from rockfalls, soil/rock avalanches, and flows that either are seismically triggered or occur aseismically. To determine the range in risk values and dominant contributing variables to the risk, we modelled nine different risk scenarios where we incrementally changed the variables used in the risk model to account for the underlying uncertainty. The scenarios represent our central estimate of the risk, e.g. neither optimistic nor conservative, through to our upper estimate of the risk. We include in these estimates the impact time-variable factors, such as a recently reactivated landslide, have had on locally increasing risk and the time-elapsed since the last major earthquake on the nearby Alpine Fault. We disaggregated our risk results to determine the dominant drivers in landslide risk, which highlighted the importance of considering dynamic time-variable risk scenarios and the changing contributions to risk from aseismic versus seismic landslides. A detailed understanding of the drivers of landslide risk in each valley is important to determine the most efficient and appropriate risk management decisions.

The Role of Disaster Risk Governance for Effective Post-Disaster Risk Management—Case of Croatia

Risk governance is mostly viewed through the lens of disaster or emergency management departments, agencies, or organizations. Visible in times of crises, risk governance is rarely seen as part of everyday public or private functions such as planning, social welfare, investments, or fiscal responsibilities. This paper emphasizes the importance of disaster risk governance in disaster risk management activities on the example of the post-disaster recovery of Croatia after a series of strong seismic events in mainland Croatia. The analysis is made based on a thorough review of national documents of Croatia and other selected countries overlapped with the national journals reporting on the situation from the affected areas. In accordance with the authors’ opinion, the necessary elements of disaster risk governance are clearly stated through the four Sendai framework priorities, and this statement is supported by the facts from the case study. Without either the political will or the enabling surrounding the disaster, risk management is next to impossible. The Croatian case study emphasizes the importance of disaster risk governance, showcasing the adaptation process for the post-disaster recovery process to start.

A Model for the Assessment of the Economic Benefits Associated with Energy Retrofit Interventions: An Application to Existing Buildings in the Italian Territory

In recent decades, the issue of existing buildings’ energy retrofit has played a central role in the context of international and national territorial development policies, mainly due to the obsolescence state that characterizes the housing stock. Since the current need for energy renovation collides with the widespread low spending capacity of the owners, in recent years numerous fiscal incentives have been envisaged, aimed at promoting building initiatives for the improvement of energy performance indices. With reference to the Italian fiscal measure so-called Superbonus, introduced by the “Relaunch” Law Decree No. 34/2020, in the present research, a model for evaluating the economic benefits, in terms of the convenience of the operators involved, generated by energy requalification interventions, has been proposed. The analysis has been developed with regards to the Italian territory and to the prevailing building typology, by considering 110 provincial capitals and the main urban areas into which each city is divided (central, semi-central, and peripheral). Specifically, for each urban area of the Italian capitals considered, the market value differential between the after energy and before energy intervention situations has been firstly determined. Furthermore, assuming an ordinary profit margin of a generic investor interested in this type of investment, the break-even incentive, i.e., the percentage threshold able to ensure the condition of minimum convenience for an investor, has been estimated for each urban area.

Selected Papers from 1st Croatian Conference on Earthquake Engineering (1CroCEE)

The surprisingly heavy social impacts were amplified by a combination of circumstances such as damage concentrated in the dense urban city center, the number of people requiring alternative accommodation and the relatively cold weather. Interdisciplinary research and training in particular in the fields of Earthquake Engineering and Seismic Risk assessment and management is crucial for improving the design of new structures, retrofitting the existing ones and efficiently respond and recover from disastrous earthquakes. The analysis is conducted on a tramway network scale to identify critical locations by performing continuous monitoring on the tramway network and risk analysis based on the distance of buildings from the track, vibration amplitude at source, and building damage. The paper presents a failure analysis of the bell tower of the church of St. Francis of Assisi on Kaptol in Zagreb subjected to seismic activity using the finite-discrete element method—FDEM.

A Structured Review of Emotional Barriers to WASH Provision for Schoolgirls Post-Disaster

Pubescent girls face unique emotional barriers to returning to school after a disaster concerning water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). This paper explores themes of WASH, gender violence, the lack of dignity and sense of shame arising from inadequate WASH facilities for girls in disaster settings. We conducted a structured literature review of 126 sources to investigate the emotional constraints facing pubescent girls concerning WASH in schools in Indonesia, a region prone to frequent disasters. Findings are synthesised into four major themes: psychological experiences of WASH, challenges faced by girls in schools, barriers to inclusive WASH provision and how to create a holistic approach to WASH. Key conclusions include the need for interdisciplinary research, cross sectoral collaboration, more evidence and research in Indonesia, especially regarding menstrual hygiene management, improved toilet design to reduce the physical barriers linked to emotional barriers and inclusive design for those with disabilities.

Assessment of Disused Public Buildings: Strategies and Tools for Reuse of Healthcare Structures

The aim of this paper, in line with the 2030 European Agenda and 2021 Italian “Recovery and Resilience Plan” objectives, is to define an evaluation methodology and tool to support public administrations to detect buildings, currently unused or underused, that might be apt for transformation interventions. The focus is on historical Italian healthcare buildings since these show widespread decay and neglect. A five-step methodology has been developed: screening of public assets;classification, evaluation, and identification of buildings, based on the “potential index”;GIS mapping and inventory;selection of buildings for in-depth analysis;BIM digitization and definition of the “transformability index”. In the fifth phase, an evaluation tool is integrated into the BIM software to automatically calculate the transformability index of each building using six indicators: usability, fragmentation, modifiability, roof implementation, external envelope, and window-to-wall ratio. The “transformability index” helps define the most appropriate buildings to intervene with for reuse. Building transformation is connected to construction features and layout organization and it is limited by architectural, structural, and artistic constraints.